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In this episode, Yaron reviews the surprise attack by opposition forces in northern Syria and the collapse of the status quo that had existed in the country since 2017. The conversation, recorded on December 3, analyzes the reasons for the outbreak of fighting right now, the identity of the forces involved, the interests of regional powers, and the implications for Syria’s future and its minorities.
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Background: The three Syrias
According to Yaron, until the recent developments, Syria was de facto divided into three entities. About 70% of the country’s territory, mainly the populated western strip, was under the control of Bashar al-Assad. His rule relied on air and naval support from Russia and on ground forces from pro-Iranian Shiite militias, which replaced the worn-out Syrian army from which many Sunni soldiers had deserted. In the northeast, there was a Kurdish autonomy, and in the northwest, in Idlib province, the last enclave of the Sunni opposition was entrenched. This situation had remained relatively stable since 2017.
Why now?
Yaron explains that the current offensive is part of a “domino effect of wars” that began with the war in Gaza, continued to Lebanon, and has now reached Syria. The war against Israel weakened Hezbollah, which apparently withdrew forces from Syria, creating a vacuum that the rebels are exploiting. Meanwhile, Russia, Assad’s patron, is itself depleted due to its war in Ukraine. The Turks, patrons of the Idlib rebels, identified the weakness of the Shiite and Russian axis and gave the green light for the attack.
Yaron adds that the Assad regime and Iran also bear responsibility for the situation. He argues that Iran may have preferred to keep the Idlib enclave on a low flame as a “Juha’s nail,” a pretext to continue its military presence in Syria. Meanwhile, the Assad regime developed a conception that Idlib was deterred and the threat from it had passed. This conception has now collapsed, after the regime began to thin out its forces and even cancel conscription.
The Turkish interest
Boris asks what Turkey’s interest is in Syria. Yaron replies that Turkey, similar to Iran, exploited the civil war to take control of large areas in northern Syria, officially to create a “security zone” against the Kurds and ISIS. But according to him, the real motive is the megalomania of President Erdoğan, who seeks to expand Turkish influence and establish an Islamist client government in Syria. He mentions that this is not the first time Turkey has annexed territory from Syria, as happened with the Sanjak of Alexandretta during the French Mandate period.
The identity of the rebels: Not friends of Israel
Yaron emphasizes that one should not make the mistake of seeing the rebels as allies. The force leading the attack is the organization Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, an evolution of Jabhat al-Nusra, which was the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda. The organization’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, is a terrorist with a Salafi-jihadist ideology. Yaron rejects the claims that the organization has moderated or that it might be friendly to Israel. According to him, even if their main enemy at the moment is the Shiite axis, Israel is also on their list of long-term targets.
He argues that the alternative to Assad is worse than him. Assad, despite being a cruel dictator, is a secular ruler who maintained 50 years of quiet on the Golan Heights border. In contrast, a jihadist regime on the border would be a much more serious threat.
The fate of the minorities and the future
The recent developments place Syria’s minorities in existential danger. The Druze, for example, who protested against the Assad regime’s neglect, now fear the extremist Islamist opposition even more. Yaron describes a difficult dilemma in the Druze camp, which is forced to choose between two bad alternatives. The fate of the Kurds and the isolated Shiite villages is also shrouded in fog.
Boris asks if partitioning Syria into separate states is not the solution. Yaron believes this is a dangerous scenario that the Arab world, led by the Arab League, will do everything to prevent for fear of a domino effect that would break up other countries in the region. According to him, the preferred solution for the moderate Gulf states, like Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, is to detach Assad from the Iranian axis and return him to the Arab fold, while promising aid for the country’s reconstruction. This solution, he emphasizes, is preferable to the alternative offered by the Turkish-Qatari axis and its jihadist supporters. As of now, the humanitarian situation in Aleppo, which has just been captured, is catastrophic, with reports of severe hunger and residents fleeing.
The original episode, in Hebrew: מי נגד מי בסוריה