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In this episode, Yaron Friedman joins the show to discuss the rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, after fifty years of his family’s rule. Yaron analyzes the reasons for the regime’s fall, the identity of the victorious forces, the fate of minorities in the new Syria, and the implications for Israel and the Middle East.
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The reasons for the rapid collapse
Yaron explains that the collapse is not surprising, but a direct continuation of the situation in 2015, just before Russian intervention saved Assad. According to him, the Syrian regime was very weak and survived only thanks to two “crutches”: the Russian air force and Iranian-backed Shiite militias. Once these crutches were removed, due to the war in Ukraine which preoccupied Russia, Iran’s distress, and the blows Hezbollah suffered from Israel, the Syrian army was left alone and quickly disintegrated.
The rebel organizations in Idlib, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, seized the opportunity. They united, apparently under Turkish guidance, and attacked. Yaron notes that Hezbollah tried to send thousands of fighters to assist the regime in the Homs area, but Damascus fell before they could fight, and they retreated. Following the fall, convoys of Alawites and Shiites were seen fleeing Damascus and returning to their areas of origin on the Syrian coast and in Lebanon.
The victors and the fate of minorities
Yaron identifies two main currents among the victorious rebels. The first current is the “Syrian National Army”, which is directly supported by Turkey and is considered relatively moderate. The second current, which is the strike force, is the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham organization, led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. This is a Salafi-jihadist organization, a former affiliate of al-Qaeda, and it is considered extremely dangerous.
The fall of the regime is causing severe anxiety among minorities. The Alawites, Assad’s community, hope to receive protection from Russia, which still maintains bases in the coastal region. The Kurds, who fear an American withdrawal, are counting on the presence of the 900 American soldiers and may also be turning to Israel. The Druze in the Suwayda region, who previously supported Assad but fell out with him during the civil war, fear for their fate under the new rule and might turn to Jordan or Israel for help. According to Yaron, Christians and Ismailis are so far being treated with tolerance, as long as they do not oppose the new rule.
The danger from the prisons
Yaron warns of a serious danger posed by the release of prisoners from the regime’s notorious prisons, such as Sednaya Prison. He explains that although many innocent people were freed, extremely dangerous jihadists and criminals were also released along with them. He recalls that at the beginning of the civil war in 2011, Assad himself released extremist Islamists from prison. Yaron believes that Assad may have done this intentionally to “paint” the opposition in extremist colors, thereby alienating Western support. Now, the release of these “monsters” could lead to the formation of new and dangerous terrorist organizations in the future.
Good news and bad news
Yaron presents a complex picture of the new situation. The bad news is the ideology of the ruling forces. He talks about videos from the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, in which Salafists are seen declaring their intention to reach Jerusalem. This confirms the fear that their ambitions are not limited to Syria, but are aimed at establishing Islamic rule over the entire “Bilad al-Sham” region, which includes Israel.
On the other hand, there is also good news. The first is the collapse of the Iranian “land corridor”. The route for transferring weapons and fighters from Iran, through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, is now blocked by anti-Iranian Sunni forces. This is a severe blow to Hezbollah and Iran. The second piece of good news is the pragmatic conduct of the rebel leader, al-Jolani. He is trying to present a moderate face, speak of a “Syria for all its citizens”, and reassure the minorities. Yaron assesses that this behavior stems from a clear interest. To gain international legitimacy, receive economic aid from the Gulf states, and consolidate his rule, al-Jolani must avoid massacres and maintain stability. This interest may restrain him and force him to renounce, at least outwardly, his extremist ideology.
The original episode, in Hebrew: סוריה לאן?