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The episode’s guest is Khalifa Khalifa, host of the podcast “The Caliphs’ Rebellion.” The conversation deals with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and its implications, with an emphasis on the situation of the Druze in the country. Khalifa analyzes the opportunities and risks facing the Druze community, Israel’s role, and the broader effects of the event on Lebanon, Iran, and the Palestinian arena.
Read the full episode summary
The regime’s fall and Druze participation
Khalifa describes his joy at the regime’s fall, an event he says was celebrated throughout the Middle East. He tells of his Druze friends from Syria who called him with the news. According to him, the Druze joined the final offensive against the regime after more than a year of non-violent resistance, which included daily protests in the Suwayda province despite the regime’s repression. He emphasizes that the fall occurred quickly and without mass atrocities, and that in the coming years, the extent of the crimes committed by the regime, for example in Sednaya Prison, will be revealed.
The future of the Druze and the fear of radical Islam
Boris Gorelik raises the concern that the rebel coalition, led by Islamist elements like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, will turn against the Druze. Khalifa replies that the future of the Druze depends first and foremost on them, and also on Israel. He notes that a power vacuum has been created in Syria. In the north, the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, is trying to rebrand himself as a moderate figure, for example by appointing a Christian bishop as governor of the Aleppo province. Khalifa believes that Julani’s actions, not just his words, should be examined, and notes positively that the regime’s overthrow was carried out relatively peacefully, without massacres and revenge.
The need for external support for the Druze
Khalifa explains that post-Assad Syria might function as a federation of ethnic and religious groups, similar to the model of the United Arab Emirates. Unlike other groups, such as the Sunnis who receive support from Saudi Arabia and the Emirates or the rebels in the north supported by Turkey, the Druze have no patron state. He argues that this is a critical moment in which the Druze must enter the political map so as not to be left behind. He calls on Israel to become an ally of the Druze in Syria. He rejects the theory that an independent Druze entity in Syria would stir unrest among the Druze in Israel, and argues that after the fall of Assad, who was the “devil you know” from Israel’s perspective, there is no longer any obstacle to supporting the Druze. A friendly Druze buffer state in the Hauran region would be a strategic asset.
The connection between the Druze in Israel and Syria
According to Khalifa, there is a great thirst among the Druze in Syria for a connection with Israel. This connection strengthened greatly after a massacre of Druze by ISIS in 2018, when the Druze in Syria felt the support of their brethren in Israel. Under the Assad regime, any contact with Israel was punishable by death, but now the situation has changed. Khalifa believes that public Israeli support for the Druze in Syria would help them, and describes the potential for broad economic and cultural cooperation. He tells of a Syrian journalist who even called for Israeli flags to be hung on every house in Syria as a sign of gratitude for their liberation from Assad’s yoke.
The implications for Lebanon and Iran
Khalifa sees the fall of Assad as part of a broader process of dismantling the Iranian “axis of resistance,” a process he believes will continue until the fall of the regime in Tehran. In Lebanon, he argues, Hezbollah is in distress. The ceasefire agreement that was signed is effectively a “surrender agreement” for the organization, because it was signed with the Lebanese government and not with Hezbollah, and it does not include clauses concerning the organization’s captives. Hezbollah’s supportive environment (al-bi’a al-hadina) has eroded, and it can no longer impose its will on all of Lebanon’s citizens. In his opinion, the process should end with the organization’s senior officials being brought to justice and its disarmament.
The Palestinian arena in Gaza
Referring to Gaza, Khalifa presents a bleaker picture. He describes the population as wounded and traumatized, and claims that the supportive environment for Hamas is still strong there. Unlike in other places, Gaza’s residents, he says, have not risen up against their leaders despite the immense suffering. He believes Israel should adopt an aggressive policy, including military-civilian administration and a population census, to pressure the population to help return the hostages. He warns against allowing Qatar to rebuild the Strip, fearing it would lead to another round of violence.
The original episode, in Hebrew: התקווה הסורית?