A review of the situation in the Middle East

The Palestinian Authority: Abu Mazen’s successor

According to Yaron Friedman, a change of leadership is expected in the Palestinian Authority, and the apparent successor to Abu Mazen is Hussein al-Sheikh. Al-Sheikh comes from the internal Fatah, unlike the leadership that came from Tunis, and was formerly a member of the Tanzim. He is considered the main rival of the imprisoned Marwan Barghouti. Friedman explains that al-Sheikh and Israel have common enemies, chief among them Hamas. Another common enemy is Barghouti, whom Hamas might try to free in order to undermine the Authority’s rule.

Al-Sheikh is responsible for coordination with Israel, speaks Hebrew, and has gained legitimacy in the United States. However, he is not popular among Palestinians and is considered a rich and corrupt figure. Friedman argues that in the Middle East, public legitimacy is not a necessary condition for rule, citing Egyptian President el-Sisi, the Assad family in Syria, and others as examples. He adds that Hamas may have also lost its legitimacy in the eyes of Gaza’s residents.

Egypt and Jordan

Friedman describes the situation in Egypt and Jordan as relatively static. The main threat to the regime in Egypt is economic, and it has been exacerbated by the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Suez Canal. Egypt is refraining from military action against the Houthis, aligning with the current Saudi policy of non-intervention in Yemen.

In Jordan, in addition to economic problems and water shortages, there is internal instability following the war in Gaza, which is manifested in numerous demonstrations. The regime is using the situation to outlaw the Muslim Brotherhood movement. Meanwhile, smuggling of the Captagon drug from Syria continues, despite the Syrian rebel leader al-Julani’s declarations that he has destroyed the production infrastructure.

Chaotic Syria

The situation in Syria, according to Friedman, remains chaotic. The control of Ahmed al-Sharaa, known as al-Julani, over his men is questionable, as evidenced by massacres of minorities, first the Alawites and now the Druze. His organization’s ideology is radical Salafist and does not allow for the existence of minorities.

Friedman explains that the Druze in Lebanon, led by Walid Jumblatt, are now trying to broker an agreement between the Druze in Syria and al-Julani’s forces. Their goal is to prevent Israeli intervention, which Friedman believes would be a mistake. He does not foresee Syria breaking up into states along ethnic lines, because no side would give up strategic areas like the coast, the oil fields in the north, or the agricultural areas in the south.

Lebanon, Turkey, and Iraq

In Lebanon, Friedman explains, there is a transitional situation, and the country may be freeing itself from Hezbollah’s grip, but the picture is not clear. Hezbollah is not disarming, but Israel is now attacking targets in Lebanon without regard for the organization.

In the second circle, Turkey is indeed threatening Israel, but tensions between them have been de-escalated through the mediation of a third country, likely Azerbaijan. In Iraq, the Shiite militias, which were active in Syria, have returned home and are now seeking to integrate into the Iraqi army and cease their independent operations. According to Friedman, this is a blow to Iran and good news for Israel.

Iran, the Gulf states, and North Africa

Friedman expresses deep concern about any nuclear agreement with Iran. He claims the Iranian regime is in a difficult economic and political situation, and Qasem Soleimani’s “export of the revolution” project has failed. An agreement that would pour billions into the regime would be a lifeline, allowing it to rehabilitate itself and its militias.

Regarding the Gulf states, Friedman sees no chance of normalization with Saudi Arabia as long as the situation in Gaza continues. He commends the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco, which have managed to preserve the Abraham Accords despite the war.

In North Africa, the civil war in Sudan continues, although it seems the army is beginning to overcome Hemetti’s militia. In Libya, the country is still divided between two rival governments. In Tunisia, President Kais Saied has become a dictator, and in Algeria, tensions with Morocco have intensified following the Abraham Accords.