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In this episode of This Week in the Middle East, the guest is Dr. Haim Koren, a lecturer at Reichman University, former Israeli ambassador to South Sudan and Egypt, and a Middle East scholar. The conversation covers the bloody civil war raging in Sudan, the severe humanitarian crisis it has created, and the tangle of interests of regional and global powers involved in the conflict.
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Background to the war: from al-Bashir’s ouster to a succession struggle
According to Dr. Koren, Sudan has never been stable since its independence in 1956. The situation has worsened in recent years, leading to famine, the flight of millions of citizens, the spread of disease, and mass killings. The current crisis is a direct result of the processes that led to the ouster of dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Al-Bashir, who led the country with a jihadist ideology, was ousted following widespread popular protests against economic collapse and oppression.
His place was taken by his two immediate successors: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, chief of staff of the Sudanese army, and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia, a later incarnation of the notorious Janjaweed militia. Dr. Koren explains that Hemedti, a tribal leader from the Darfur region, served al-Bashir and committed crimes for him that amounted to genocide in Darfur in 2003-2005. After al-Bashir’s ouster, Burhan and Hemedti ran the country jointly, while thwarting American and European attempts to integrate a civilian element into the government.
Sudan’s turnaround: from a terrorist state to an attempted rapprochement with the West
Dr. Koren reviews Sudan’s past as a terrorist state under the rule of al-Bashir and the ideologue Hassan al-Turabi. Sudan allied with Iran, served as its gateway to Africa, and in the 1990s hosted Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda members. It was involved in the 1995 assassination attempt on President Mubarak and the 1998 bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. These actions led to the imposition of crippling sanctions that brought its economy to the brink of collapse.
To escape the situation, al-Bashir began looking for a way off the list of state sponsors of terrorism. In 2015, he joined the Saudi coalition fighting the Houthis in Yemen, and in 2016, he severed relations with Iran. According to Dr. Koren, the Americans then hinted to him that the path to restoring relations with Washington passed through establishing relations with Israel. He adds that 90% of the Sudanese force that fought in Yemen was composed of Hemedti’s militia members. This helped to legitimize the militia, which was accused of genocide, and drew the attention of the United Arab Emirates, which was impressed by Hemedti’s military capabilities and cultivated ties with him.
The outbreak of the civil war and international involvement
The partnership between Burhan, a representative of the old Arab elite from northern Sudan, and Hemedti, a tribesman from Darfur who rose from outside the establishment, fell apart in April 2023. Hemedti, feeling he had amassed enough power with the support of Russia and the United Arab Emirates, launched a rebellion against Burhan. Dr. Koren details the alignment of forces: traditionally, Egypt and Saudi Arabia supported Burhan out of a desire for stability. On the other hand, Hemedti received support from the UAE, which is interested in food security and regional influence, as well as from Russia and the Wagner Group, which used Sudan as a springboard to expand their influence in Africa and received Sudanese gold in return.
When Burhan’s forces suffered defeats, he made a U-turn. On October 8, 2023, immediately after the war in Israel broke out, he renewed relations with Iran and in return received UAVs and drones from it that enabled him to achieve military successes. Following this, Dr. Koren explains, another reversal occurred: Russia, recognizing the shift in the balance of power, switched its support from Hemedti to Burhan.
Sudan’s strategic importance
Dr. Koren emphasizes that despite its image, Sudan is not a marginal country. Its location on the Nile and the Red Sea is of paramount strategic importance. It serves as an export route for South Sudan’s oil destined for China, and powers like Russia and Turkey covet the establishment of a naval base in Port Sudan. The renewed connection between Sudan and Iran creates a dangerous axis with the Houthis and gives Tehran a foothold on the way to Niger, one of the world’s largest uranium producers. As for Israel, he says, both warring parties signed the Abraham Accords and are still interested in ties with it, understanding that the road to Washington passes through Jerusalem.
The world’s most severe humanitarian crisis
The war, combined with climatic phenomena like floods and drought, has created the most severe humanitarian crisis in the world today in Sudan, with millions of displaced people, severe famine, and disease. Dr. Koren argues that the crisis is being ignored internationally, partly because Arab and global media avoid extensive coverage of a conflict where Arabs are slaughtering black Africans, similar to the silence that characterized the coverage of the Darfur genocide in the early 2000s.
The original episode, in Hebrew: מה קורה בסודאן?