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In this episode, Dr. Yaron Friedman is a guest, discussing the situation in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime. According to him, contrary to the optimism in the West, the country is heading in a worrying Islamist and Salafi direction. He bases his analysis on Arabic sources and expresses concern about negative developments on several fronts.
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The Islamist character of the new regime
Dr. Friedman explains that he does not share the optimism regarding the new regime of Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as al-Julani. He notes that in public discourse in Arabic, al-Sharaa does not mention the word democracy, and his government is composed mainly of his associates and members of his organization, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. According to him, the persecution of minorities, especially the Alawites, continues, driven by a Salafi ideology that aims to turn Syria into a “Sunnistan” cleansed of those not considered Muslims. He mentions that in response, the spiritual leadership of the Druze issued a statement emphasizing that they are Muslims.
The new Syrian army
The new army being established in Syria is, according to Friedman, a vengeful and ideological army. Photos from the ground show bearded soldiers and commanders quoting the Quran, and the fighters are sometimes called “mujahideen” rather than soldiers. Friedman warns that the dismissal of the veteran officer corps, which was mostly Alawite and secular, is a ticking time bomb. He compares this to the situation in Iraq, where dismissed officers from Saddam Hussein’s army later became the foundation of the ISIS organization.
The integration of foreign fighters
Another concern is the integration of foreign fighters, such as Chechens and Uyghurs, into the new Syrian army, instead of expelling them from the country as promised. Friedman emphasizes that these are terrorists with blood on their hands who have no emotional connection to Syria, and therefore they are capable of committing serious crimes. He mentions that al-Julani’s original organization, Jabhat al-Nusra, means “the Support Front,” and these foreigners see themselves as having come to help turn Syria into an Islamic state.
The attitude toward Israel
Friedman argues that while Western media talks about moderation, he finds no evidence for it in Arabic sources. According to him, the talk of a non-belligerence agreement with Israel is a move designed to please the Americans but is meaningless, as a de facto state of non-belligerence has existed since 1973. Regarding the recent rocket fire from Syria, the new regime was quick to deny responsibility and blamed it on a “rogue Palestinian organization.”
The danger of the al-Hol camp
The most alarming development, in Friedman’s view, concerns the al-Hol camp. Over 40,000 people are held in the camp, most of them women and children of ISIS fighters. The Kurds, who guarded the camp with American funding, are transferring responsibility to the new Syrian regime. A spokesman for the new Syrian Interior Ministry stated that there is an intention to open the camp and integrate its residents into Syrian society. Friedman warns that this is a population with an extremist ideology. Reporters who visited the site reported on women and children who hold to ISIS ideology, view anyone not like them as an “infidel,” and educate the younger generation accordingly. Releasing them into society without a re-education process is a tremendous danger.
International pressure and the chance for change
According to Friedman, the key to influencing Syria is economic. He believes the United States should use the sanctions card and not lift them all at once, but rather gradually and in exchange for concrete steps by the regime. He notes the growing influence of Turkey and Qatar, the regime’s main supporters, which is reflected, for example, in the rewriting of textbooks to portray the Ottoman period in a positive light. As for the possibility of Druze autonomy in the south, Friedman is skeptical and notes that the Druze themselves wish to remain part of Syria.
He sees the only hope in a broader regional context. If the war in Gaza ends and regional arrangements are reached, countries like Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, which will participate in Syria’s reconstruction, could pressure the regime to move closer to Israel and away from Iran, their common enemy.
The original episode, in Hebrew: סוריה של ג׳ולאני - לאן?