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This episode’s guest is Mor Shapira, a lecturer in Arabic at Bar-Ilan University and a researcher at the MEMRI institute. Shapira analyzes how the media and public in the Arab world and Iran reacted to the Israeli attack on Iran, the collapse of the Iranian deterrence myth, and the various narratives that developed following the events.
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Mockery of Iran in the Arab world
According to Mor Shapira, the prominent reaction in the Arab world, especially in the Gulf states, is mockery of the Iranian failure. Emirati commentators, for example, called the event “the Nakba of the Iranians” and mocked that the nuclear program had “evaporated” and the generals had become “posters for failure.” The prevailing view is that the entire deterrence myth that Iran built for years has collapsed, and it is nothing more than a paper tiger. However, Shapira notes that this is not the only reaction. Among Palestinians, some saw the Iranian attack on Israel as divine revenge. Others, who believe in the “Faithful Promise” (al-Wa’d al-Sadiq), see the Iranian failure as a temporary station on the way to Islamic redemption and the conquest of the land.
Iran’s concept of deterrence
Shapira explains that Iran sees itself as a historical power and looks down on the Arab states, which it perceives as artificial entities created by the Sykes-Picot Agreement. After the Iran-Iraq War, the Iranian regime built an unconventional deterrence concept based on three components: proxies that would fight for it, a ballistic missile program, and a nuclear program. The ultimate goal of this strategy, she says, is to preserve the regime’s legitimacy, the threat to which is the regime’s greatest fear. The Israeli attack undermined this deterrence concept and led Arab countries to wonder if they had been afraid of a real threat.
The opposition’s weakness and the regime’s stability
In response to a question from Boris, Shapira clarifies that the opposition in Iran is weak, fragmented, and effectively suppressed by the regime. The exiled opposition in the West does not pose a serious alternative. She emphasizes that the Iranian regime is built in an institutionalized and clever way, so the fall of Supreme Leader Khamenei would not lead to the collapse of the entire system. There are mechanisms, like the Assembly of Experts, that will ensure governmental continuity. She argues that an external attempt to topple the regime, similar to what happened in Iraq or the Arab Spring countries, could lead to a power vacuum, chaos, and the rise of even more extreme elements.
Egypt’s fear of Israeli hegemony
One of the interesting reactions, according to Shapira, came from Egypt, where an existential fear of an Israeli victory arose. The perception is that if Israel managed to defeat Iran, it will become the undisputed hegemon of the Middle East. The Egyptians fear that Israel will feel free to act unilaterally against any threat it defines, for example by emptying Gaza of its residents, and no Arab state will be able to oppose it. The fear is that Israel will establish facts on the ground without any opposition.
Jordan, Qatar, and the Arab media
Shapira describes how Jordan, which fears Iranian expansion, acted decisively against the attack and assisted Israel in intercepting the missiles and UAVs. The Jordanian regime is fighting Iranian attempts to undermine its stability through proxies, and even exposed an Iranian weapons manufacturing infrastructure on its soil. At the same time, liberal writers in the Arab world expressed support for Israel’s right to attack, understanding that a nuclear Iran also endangers them. In contrast, the Qatari Al Jazeera network was accused of hypocrisy. When Iranian missiles landed near the network’s headquarters in Doha, it barely reported on it, and even then, it only quoted Iranian sources.
The Iranian regime’s narrative
The Iranian regime, according to Shapira, is trying to build a counter-narrative. She quotes a former Iranian diplomat, Amir Mousavi, who claimed that Israel is finished and that its victory was achieved only thanks to American and European military aid. According to him, Iran enriched uranium to a high level only out of spite because of Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal. Now, after Israel “destroyed” the nuclear program, Iran claims it has the legitimacy to operate in complete secrecy and maintain nuclear ambiguity. The diplomat also presented Iran’s leaders as brave men who went out into the bombed streets, in contrast to the “cowardly Zionists” who hid in shelters. Shapira concludes that the regime admits it suffered a severe blow, but is working to restore its image and emphasize that the revolutionary idea is not dead.
The original episode, in Hebrew: הנכבה של איראן