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In this episode of “This Week in the Middle East,” Boris Gorelik speaks with Dr. Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), about Israel’s complex relationship with Azerbaijan. The conversation covers the security, economic, and diplomatic aspects of the connection, and examines Azerbaijan’s place in the geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus and the Middle East, against the backdrop of its relations with Iran, Turkey, and the major powers.
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Azerbaijan and the Abraham Accords
According to Dr. Lindenstrauss, there is a belief that Azerbaijan will be the next country to join the Abraham Accords. Although Israel and Azerbaijan have had full diplomatic relations since 1993, joining the accords carries several advantages. First, the Abraham Accords have become a successful brand that countries want to be part of. Second, this branding could improve Azerbaijan’s standing in Washington, especially given the uncertainty in its relations with Russia. Third, such a move could pave the way for purchasing American weapons, something that has been largely prevented so far due to the strong Armenian lobby in the United States.
The triangular relationship with Turkey and Iran
Dr. Lindenstrauss explains that the relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan began in the 1990s as part of a triangular relationship that also included Turkey, with American encouragement. After the deterioration of relations between Israel and Turkey, the triangle broke down into two separate relationships: Turkey-Azerbaijan and Israel-Azerbaijan. The bond between Turkey and Azerbaijan is particularly close, under the slogan “one nation, two states.”
A central component of the relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan is the shared threat from Iran. Both countries view Iran as an existential threat. Azerbaijan, a Shiite country with a secular character, fears Iranian subversion on its territory and Iranian ambitions to export the revolution. Iran, for its part, fears a national awakening among the large Azeri minority living in its north.
Economic and civil cooperation
The economic relations between the countries are based mainly on deals of arms from Israel in exchange for oil from Azerbaijan. Dr. Lindenstrauss notes that Azerbaijan has been an extremely reliable energy supplier for Israel over the years, although official trade data is classified.
Beyond that, there is a boom in tourism, and Azerbaijan’s national airline has continued to fly to Israel even in times of war. Additionally, civil cooperation is developing in areas such as water desalination and the technological rehabilitation of the territories that Azerbaijan regained from Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
The Washington summit and the conflict with Armenia
Dr. Lindenstrauss estimates that the upcoming visit of Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, to Washington will include a meeting with the leader of Armenia with American mediation, and perhaps even under the auspices of Donald Trump. She anticipates the signing of a memorandum of understanding on the path to a peace agreement, a move that would be a prerequisite for Azerbaijan joining the Abraham Accords. Such an agreement would allow the opening of borders between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkey, and would open new trade routes. One of the remaining points of contention is control over the “Zangezur corridor,” which would connect Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory.
Azerbaijan as a regional mediator
Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, serves as a fertile ground for secret diplomacy. According to Dr. Lindenstrauss, talks are held in Baku between Israel and Turkey on deconfliction mechanisms, as well as talks between Israel and the new regime in Syria. This role as a mediator adds to Azerbaijan’s diplomatic prestige.
What can be learned from Azerbaijan
Boris asks what lessons Israel can learn from Azerbaijan’s conduct. Dr. Lindenstrauss notes the emphasis President Aliyev places on “hard power”: advanced weapons systems, including Israeli UAVs, were a decisive factor in Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia. In addition, she points to Aliyev’s deep personal involvement in diplomacy and the promotion of an image of religious tolerance, while suppressing radical Islamic elements, similar to the Gulf states.
Tensions with Russia
Significant tension recently arose between Russia and Azerbaijan after a Russian air defense system shot down an Azeri aircraft. Dr. Lindenstrauss explains that Russia is losing its influence in the Caucasus, as even Armenia, its traditional ally, is distancing itself from it. This weakening of Russia opens the door for American and European influence in the region, partly to diversify Europe’s energy sources and to compete with Chinese influence. She adds that in response to criticism over selling weapons to Azerbaijan, Israel highlights Armenia’s close relations with Iran.
The original episode, in Hebrew: יחסי ישראל אזרבייג׳ן