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The episode’s guest is Middle East scholar, former Knesset member, and research fellow at Chatham House, Dr. Ksenia Svetlova. The conversation deals with reports of an Egyptian military buildup in the Sinai Peninsula, and examines the question of whether Israel is indeed facing a threat of war from its southern neighbor. Svetlova argues that there is no real evidence of Egyptian preparations for war, and that the reports on the subject are part of a political campaign.
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Media campaign and familiar rhetoric
According to Ksenia Svetlova, the talk of an Egyptian arms buildup began to gain momentum last February, and it appears to be media spin. She continuously follows the media and public discourse in Egypt and does not detect a genuine warlike spirit. Svetlova explains that the videos of tanks and military trucks, circulated on social media, are mostly old materials being recycled on Egyptian television.
The threatening rhetoric of President el-Sisi and the display of military power are recurring phenomena every year around national holidays, such as the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War (October 6) and Sinai Liberation Day (April 25). This is part of the Egyptian national ethos, built around the “victory” in the war. According to her, el-Sisi’s speeches, in which he declares that Egypt does not want war but will know how to respond if attacked, are a regular message not aimed only at Israel, but also at Ethiopia and radical Islam.
The position of the Israeli defense establishment
Boris notes that sources in Israel, including a reserve officer, are presenting satellite images of new bunkers and trenches in Sinai as evidence of offensive preparations. Svetlova rejects these claims and argues that they are not backed by reliable sources. She emphasizes that contrary to these reports, senior IDF officials have stated in the media that they do not detect Egyptian preparations for war. According to those same officials, the spread of these rumors stems from political motives, and the defense establishment is not a party to it.
Svetlova adds that no official security body, not the IDF, the Shin Bet, nor the Mossad, has warned of such a danger. She mentions that any entry of Egyptian military forces into Sinai requires Israeli approval, and in recent months, no unusual troop movements have been recorded.
Egypt’s interests and the regional context
Svetlova distinguishes between Egypt and Hamas. While Hamas is an ideological organization whose declared goal is the destruction of Israel, Egypt is a nation-state with complex interests. The Egyptian military, which controls about fifty percent of the economy, sees radical Islam and the Muslim Brotherhood as its main domestic enemy.
In Svetlova’s view, Egypt has no rational interest in attacking Israel. Its economy is in a difficult state and it depends on financial aid from Gulf countries, like Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, which have no interest in a regional escalation. Additionally, Egypt receives 1.4 billion dollars in annual military aid from the United States. Another important economic tie is the import of gas from Israel, which is essential for preventing widespread power outages in Egypt.
The issue of Palestinian refugees
Boris asks why Egypt refuses to accept Palestinian refugees from Gaza, even temporarily. Svetlova explains that in Egyptian and Arab discourse, accepting refugees is seen as abetting “tahjir,” the expulsion of Palestinians from their land. Egypt’s official position is that it is preventing the expulsion, based on the belief that if the Palestinians move to Sinai, Israel will never allow them to return. Therefore, Egypt will not agree to be a partner in what it sees as an Israeli plan to eliminate the Palestinian presence in the Strip. The idea that Egypt would give up part of the Sinai to expand the Strip is rejected outright, as sovereignty over every grain of sand in Sinai is a sacred principle in Egypt.
Changes in attitudes toward Judaism and Israel
Svetlova notes that despite the anti-Israeli and antisemitic image that has stuck to Egypt over the years, especially during the Mubarak era, a change has occurred in recent years. According to her, incitement in the Egyptian media has decreased significantly, likely as a result of the regime tightening its control over the media outlets.
In addition, she identifies initial attempts to change textbooks, as well as efforts to renovate ancient synagogues and Jewish cemeteries, like the Bassatine cemetery in Cairo. She sees this as a positive sign, even if it stems mainly from a desire to curry favor with circles in the United States. Further evidence of the complexity of the relationship is the fact that Egypt, despite the war in Gaza, has not closed its embassy in Israel.
The original episode, in Hebrew: רוחות מלחמה ממצרים?