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In this episode, Dr. Yaron Friedman explains how the Hezbollah organization can be ‘strangled’ through economic means, without the need for a large-scale military attack. According to him, the process has already begun, and it focuses on two main channels: damaging the organization’s banking system and dismantling its drug empire.
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Pressure on Al-Qard al-Hasan, Hezbollah’s bank
According to Friedman, the first channel for strangling Hezbollah is targeting the Al-Qard al-Hasan (The Good Loan) bank. The bank was established by Hezbollah in 1982 and received a license from the Lebanese government in 1987. Outwardly, it functions as a charity that provides interest-free loans and grants to the Shiite community, in accordance with Islamic law. In practice, Friedman claims, the bank serves as a conduit for money laundering, terror financing, and paying salaries to the organization’s operatives. Its main sources of funding are aid from Iran and profits from the drug trade.
Recently, significant pressure has been applied to the bank. In addition to Israeli strikes on its branches, the United States has issued an ultimatum to the Lebanese government: within two months, starting from November 11, Hezbollah must disarm and shut down Al-Qard al-Hasan. At the same time, the Americans recently imposed sanctions that disconnect the bank from the Lebanese banking system, which harms its ability to conduct money transfers.
Hezbollah refuses to comply with the demands, which creates immense pressure on the Lebanese government. According to Friedman, three-quarters of the Lebanese public are demanding that the government send the army to the south and disarm Hezbollah. However, the Lebanese army fears a confrontation. Friedman notes that according to a simulation he ran, Hezbollah is stronger than the Lebanese army in terms of equipment, experience, and motivation, so it is unclear why it would give up its power.
The collapse of the drug empire
The second part of the economic strangulation, which has seen significant successes, is the war on Hezbollah’s drug empire. For decades, the organization has made enormous profits from growing hashish and opium, and especially from producing Captagon pills. The smuggling route, Friedman explains, originated in Lebanon, passed through Syria in cooperation with the Assad regime, and from there continued to Jordan, Israel, and the Gulf states. In this way, the drugs primarily harmed countries considered enemies of Iran.
Friedman describes two key developments that caused the empire’s collapse. First, Lebanon’s security forces began raiding the drug-growing areas in the Beqaa Valley. Since Hezbollah officially denies any connection to drugs, it cannot respond militarily to these actions. The highlight of the operation was the assassination of drug lord Ali Zwaiter, the “Escobar of Lebanon,” by a Lebanese army drone.
Second, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria changed the rules of the game. The new ruler, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is keen to prove to the West that he is a legitimate partner, as well as to strike at his bitter enemy, Hezbollah. Therefore, the new Syrian regime has begun to fight the drug trade, destroy shipments, and act against smugglers. Turkey, which supports the new regime, assisted in the effort by arresting Syria’s biggest drug lord, Omar Shadeh, and extraditing him to the Syrians. As a result, Friedman explains, Hezbollah’s second most important source of funding is in real existential danger.
A look to the future
In summing up the discussion, Boris Gorelik raises the concern that Israel has remained relatively passive in the process, and is dependent on the actions of the United States, Turkey, and the new Syrian regime. Friedman agrees but notes that Israel always has the military option, which could harm Hezbollah more quickly and drastically. However, he warns that such an attack could lead to an escalation, and quotes Nasrallah’s deputy, Naim Qassem, who recently said the organization “will no longer be able to remain silent” if it feels its end is near.
Friedman rejects the claim that Israel can cooperate with the new Syrian regime against Hezbollah. According to him, al-Sharaa is fighting Hezbollah out of self-interest, and replacing Iranian patronage in Syria with Turkish patronage simply substitutes a new enemy for the old one. Despite this, he ends on an optimistic note, emphasizing that the economic strangulation of Hezbollah is real, and the distress within the organization is keenly felt.
The original episode, in Hebrew: חונקים את חזבאללה