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This episode’s guest is Dr. Haim Koren, former Israeli ambassador to South Sudan and Egypt and currently a lecturer at Reichman University. The conversation deals with Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, a state entity that split from Somalia about 30 years ago. Dr. Koren analyzes the historical and geopolitical background of the region, the strategic interests of Israel and other powers, and the possible implications of the move.
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The background of Somaliland
According to Dr. Koren, the region known as the Horn of Africa is composed of three main entities. The first is Somalia, a failed state that has been dysfunctional for many years. The second is Puntland, which is ostensibly part of Somalia but in practice operates separately and has a different tribal composition. The third, the northernmost, is Somaliland.
The split was created following the colonial race of the 19th century. Italy controlled Somalia and Puntland, while Britain controlled Somaliland. The different colonial heritage created cultural and administrative gaps. In 1960, Somaliland gained independence from Britain and was required to unite with Somalia, but the union quickly failed and it began to operate as an independent entity. In contrast to chaotic Somalia, Somaliland is described by Dr. Koren as a relatively stable, democratic state with an orderly, though not wealthy, economy.
Strategic importance and regional powers
The main importance of the region stems from its strategic location at the junction of the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean, on one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes. This location attracts many powers with diverse interests. China maintains a base in nearby Djibouti, Turkey operates in Somalia, and Russia has a presence in Sudan. The United Arab Emirates and Taiwan have also maintained close ties with Somaliland for years, although they have not officially recognized it.
The Israeli interest
Dr. Koren explains that Israeli recognition of Somaliland has several clear strategic advantages. First, it gives Israel a foothold in a critical point near Yemen, which could help in dealing with the Houthi threat. Second, the move strengthens the Israeli-Emirati axis and allows for cooperation in Africa and Yemen. Third, it serves as a counterweight to the expansionist ambitions of Turkey and Iran in the region. And finally, it gives Israel influence along the entire Red Sea shipping lane, from the Suez Canal to the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a significant geostrategic asset.
Global reactions and the risks
Alongside the advantages, there are also risks. According to Dr. Koren, the move could anger China, which sees Somaliland as an ally of Taiwan. Egypt and Saudi Arabia, as well as the African Union, are opposed in principle to the splitting of states and see it as a dangerous precedent. An example of this is Egypt’s harsh reaction to the recent agreement signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland, under which Ethiopia was supposed to recognize Somaliland in exchange for port access.
On the other hand, Dr. Koren notes that Muslim countries like Morocco and Indonesia did not react negatively. He also mentions the hypocrisy of Turkish President Erdogan, who condemns the move while Turkey itself occupies northern Cyprus.
Sovereignty and borders in the new world order
Boris asks about the general reluctance in the world to change borders. Dr. Koren argues that since the 1990s, the world order has been changing. The principle of the sanctity of borders is eroding in favor of interests. Examples include the rise of non-state actors like Hezbollah and Hamas, and the conduct of powers like Russia, which uses the Wagner Group to take over large areas in Africa and disregards the sovereignty of local states. In his view, the recognition of Somaliland is not an exceptional move but a reflection of a changing global reality, where states act according to their interests.
Weighing the benefits against the harm
In conclusion, Dr. Koren believes that on balance, the advantages of recognizing Somaliland outweigh the disadvantages. Somaliland is a stable, democratic, and Muslim country that is not hostile to Israel, and it constitutes a strategic anchor in an important location. Israel can contribute a great deal to it in areas like agriculture, solar energy, and maritime management. However, he emphasizes that Israel must manage the move wisely, realize its interests, and at the same time avoid antagonizing partner states like Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
The original episode, in Hebrew: סומלילנד -חלוצתפירוקמדינות לאום