Geopolitical forecast for 2026

The situation in the Palestinian arena

According to Dr. Friedman, Hamas is in a state of stagnation, partly due to a leadership struggle. There is a rivalry between Khaled Mashal, who is identified with the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatari axis, and Khalil al-Hayya, who is close to the Iranian axis. Dr. Friedman explains that a possible collapse of the regime in Iran could strengthen Mashal’s position. Meanwhile, negotiations for the release of the hostages in Gaza are stalled. Israel demands Hamas’s disarmament as a condition for withdrawal, while Hamas demands an Israeli withdrawal. This stalemate, Friedman argues, may force Israel to launch another military operation in the Strip to eliminate Hamas’s rule.

Lebanon, Syria, and the Muslim Brotherhood

The situation in Lebanon, according to Dr. Friedman, is similar to the situation in Gaza. There too, there is a stalemate, because Hezbollah is not willing to disarm. He notes that Arab commentators estimate that Israel may start a war and even a ground invasion of Lebanon after the winter. However, the fall of the Iranian regime could cause Hezbollah to collapse and change the rules of the game. At the same time, the global Muslim Brotherhood movement is in one of the biggest crises in its history, with American and European sanctions, the closure of offices in Arab countries, and a split in its leadership. The only axis that still supports them is the Turkish-Qatari axis, which is now also strengthening in Syria at the expense of the Iranians. In Syria itself, the new regime is unstable and is carrying out massacres against minorities, including Alawites, Druze, and Kurds.

The hidden rivalry in the Gulf: Saudi Arabia vs. the UAE

Dr. Friedman elaborates on the growing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. According to him, the Saudis feel that the Emiratis are “stepping on their toes” in various arenas, such as Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. In Yemen, the situation has reached a boiling point. The Southern Transitional Council, supported by the UAE, took advantage of the ceasefire that the Saudis worked hard to achieve (including through reconciliation with Iran) to expand its control. In response, the Saudi air force bombed its own allies, that is, the council’s forces, and made it clear that it would not tolerate any challenge to stability. Friedman explains that the Emiratis backed down and disavowed this move, because relations with Saudi Arabia are more important to them than control over Yemen. Saudi Arabia, for its part, made it clear that it is the “boss” in the Gulf and will not allow any country, not even a close ally, to undermine its security interests in its backyard. Now, the Saudis are working to unite southern Yemen under their patronage.

Jordan, Iran, and the chance of war

Boris Gorelik asks about the situation in Jordan. Dr. Friedman notes that one of the positive developments of the year is the blow dealt to the drug trade from Syria, which has had a positive effect on Jordan. However, he warns about the long and porous border with Jordan and about extremist elements in the kingdom. Regarding Iran, Friedman raises the possibility that the regime, in a desperate move, will attack Israel. He also quotes Arab commentators who claim that the Israeli government may have a political interest in going to war on several fronts to strengthen its public standing ahead of elections. Finally, he expresses hope that in 2026 the Iranian axis, Hamas, and Hezbollah will collapse, perhaps as an unexpected result of the wars Israel is waging, despite the heavy price.