Why does Saudi Arabia fear the fall of the regime in Iran?

The surprising Saudi position

According to Dr. Yaron Friedman, various sources indicate that Saudi Arabia is the one pressuring the United States to refrain from attacking Iran or taking any action that would lead to the regime’s overthrow. This position seems puzzling, especially given the deep and long-standing hostility between the two countries.

The roots of the hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran

Dr. Friedman explains that the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran exists on several levels. On the economic level, both countries are oil powers competing for control of the markets. On the political level, both aspire to regional hegemony. He emphasizes that it is not just Iran trying to take over the Middle East, but also Saudi Arabia, which acts through economic and military means, as can be seen in its involvement in Yemen. The most acute level is the religious one. Saudi Arabia represents the extremist Wahhabi stream, which views Shi’ism as heresy. This hostility is deeply rooted in history and is based on the concepts of thinkers like Ibn Taymiyyah, which were adopted by the founders of the Saudi kingdom. The Shi’ites, for their part, see the Wahhabis as the fathers of Sunni terror and as those who usurped control of Islam’s holy places.

The four reasons for the Saudi change of direction

Dr. Friedman presents four main reasons why Saudi Arabia now prefers the survival of the Iranian regime:

1. Failure of the belligerent policy: The aggressive line led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, manifested in the war in Yemen, has failed. The war did not lead to a decisive outcome, the Arab coalition fell apart, and Saudi Arabia’s international image was damaged. The 2019 attack on Aramco’s oil facilities proved the kingdom’s vulnerability. Consequently, in 2023, Saudi Arabia decided to change direction, and inspired by countries like the UAE and Qatar, it turned to reconciliation with Iran. This reconciliation led to calm on the border with Yemen and allowed the Saudis to focus on their economy.
2. Iranian threats: Friedman estimates that Iran has sent a clear message to the Gulf states, a kind of threat in the vein of “Let me die with the Philistines.” According to this scenario, if the Iranian regime faces the danger of collapse, it will attack its neighbors, strike their oil facilities, and drag the entire region into chaos. This threat pressures the Gulf states to persuade the United States to avoid decisive action.
3. Fear of the Shah’s Iran returning: The Saudis fear the fall of the current regime and the rise of a strong, secular, and Western-allied Iran, similar to pre-revolutionary Iran. Such an Iran, freed from sanctions, would become an economic and military power that would overshadow Saudi Arabia and relegate it to a secondary status in the region.
4. The democratic domino effect: Friedman argues that the 2011 Arab Spring was influenced by the 2009 protests in Iran. The rise of a democracy in Iran could export ideas of human rights and political freedom to the autocratic Gulf states, creating internal pressure for regime change. For the Gulf monarchies, the threat of democratization is no less serious than a military threat.

Survival equals victory

According to Dr. Friedman, if the Iranian regime survives the current wave of protests, it will become much stronger. In the Middle East, survival is perceived as victory. A regime that has survived will feel secure enough to suppress its opponents with greater brutality. Friedman predicts that the Iranians will return to the nuclear negotiating table only to buy time, unfreeze funds, and continue secretly developing nuclear weapons. Their goal, he says, is to become a North Korea, a country with nuclear weapons that no one can attack, thereby ensuring the regime’s survival forever. He adds that the Iranian threat to destroy Israel is real and not just a slogan.

A look to the future

Friedman concludes that the fall of the regime in Iran is in the American and Israeli interest, as it would cause the collapse of the “axis of evil” and the militias supported by Tehran. However, he warns of a new axis of power forming around Turkey and Qatar, identified with the Muslim Brotherhood, which could become the next threat in the region.