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This episode’s guest is Dr. Yaron Friedman from the Department of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Haifa. The conversation deals with Iran’s parade of strategic mistakes, which Dr. Friedman likens to a modern, but fake, Battle of Karbala. According to him, this is a pre-lost war that the Iranian leadership entered after believing its own propaganda.
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The modern Battle of Karbala
According to Dr. Friedman, Naim Qassem, Hassan Nasrallah’s deputy, predicted a war in the style of the Battle of Karbala, and the prophecy was fulfilled. The original Battle of Karbala, in 680 AD, was a pre-lost war waged by Hussein ibn Ali, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, against the corrupt Umayyad dynasty. He went into battle out of a sense of justice, even though he knew he would lose. Khomeini, during the 1979 Islamic Revolution, presented this battle as a model of sacrifice and inspiration for future generations, and thus justified the Iran-Iraq War. However, Friedman argues, the current war is a “fake Karbala.” This is not a just struggle, but the result of 40 years of Iranian propaganda, which the leaders began to believe to the point of launching a suicidal war.
Revenge on the Sunni world
Friedman explains that Iran’s attacks on the Gulf states stem from a desire for revenge. In the long term, this is historical Shiite revenge on the Sunni world for centuries of oppression. In the short term, it is revenge on the Gulf states for supporting Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq War, for hosting American bases, and for normalizing their relations with Israel. He points to 1979 as a turning point: while Iran became an enemy of Israel and the US, Egypt, the leader of the Sunni world, signed a peace treaty with Israel. These opposing trends fueled Iranian anger.
Iran’s parade of folly
Dr. Friedman lists a series of grave mistakes made by the Iranian leadership. First, it ignored the deep intelligence penetration by the Mossad and the CIA into its ranks, which allowed for the easy elimination of its top command. Second, it did not take the threats of US President Donald Trump seriously, even though he eliminated Qasem Soleimani in 2020. The Iranians thought they could stall for time in negotiations, while the Americans were preparing for war. Another mistake was carrying out the threat to attack its neighbors in the Gulf. The move, intended to pressure the US, turned the entire Muslim world against Iran and gave leaders like Mohammed bin Salman an opportunity to lead an Arab coalition against it.
Activating the militias
The order Iran gave its militias to attack was, according to Friedman, another act of folly that was suicidal for them. Hezbollah, for example, gave Israel legitimacy to attack it forcefully and weaken it for “the day after” the Iranian regime’s collapse. Friedman explains that Hezbollah fears revenge will come from Syria and other actors after it loses Iranian support. The Shiite militias in Iraq are also now suffering American attacks, and they even fired missiles toward Israel that landed in Jordanian territory. As for the Houthis in Yemen, they remained out of the picture, likely due to their difficult economic situation. Meanwhile, the shared Iranian threat has led to a reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and they are investing in Yemen’s reconstruction, a move expected to weaken the Houthis even further.
Between a fake Karbala and moderate Shiite hope
Friedman reiterates his claim that the war Iran is waging in the name of religion is a “fake Karbala,” managed by terrorists who cynically use religious concepts to accumulate power, similar to ISIS. In response to Boris’s question of whether the Iranian leadership believes itself, Friedman replies that it is possible, but notes that Supreme Leader Khamenei is not a true supreme religious authority. The real senior authority, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who resides in Najaf, Iraq, calls for calm, introspection, and a focus on religion rather than wars. Friedman hopes that after the regime’s collapse, the moderate and quietist Shiite stream, known as “Taqiyya,” is what will prevail.
Iran has no friends
To conclude, Dr. Friedman states that Iran has no real allies. Russia and China have betrayed it. According to him, the Chinese exploited Iran economically and bought its oil and resources at rock-bottom prices, and the Russians received military aid from it in the form of UAVs for their war in Ukraine, but gave nothing in return.
The original episode, in Hebrew: איראן מתאבדת