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The episode features Dr. Ariel Admoni, a Qatar expert and a researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. The conversation deals with what Dr. Admoni calls the “failure of the Gulf concept.” According to him, the recent war revealed that there is no unified Gulf bloc, and that the foreign and security policy of each country, especially Qatar, was tested in a way that undermined basic assumptions about the region’s stability.
Read the full episode summary
No unified Gulf response
According to Dr. Admoni, one of the common misconceptions is the existence of a unified “Gulf response” to crises. In reality, the recent war highlighted that each Gulf state acted according to its own narrow interests, sometimes in opposition to its neighbors. For example, Oman took an anti-American and anti-Israeli line, while the United Arab Emirates leaned more in their direction. Qatar, as usual, tried to maneuver in the middle and not commit to either side. The division was also reflected in the level of physical damage: while hotels were hit in the UAE and a port was hit in Oman, Qatar suffered almost no damage until the attack on the gas facilities in Ras Laffan.
Leaders’ reactions and damage to image
The division was also evident in the conduct of the leaders. The rulers of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates conducted public tours to project a sense of security to the public. In contrast, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad made few public appearances, likely out of concern for their personal safety. Dr. Admoni notes that the Qatari emir avoided appearing at open-air events, and the absence of a pan-Gulf leaders’ meeting or even a coordinated statement highlighted the lack of unity and solidarity.
The Gulf “hub” concept in danger
One of the most significant impacts of the war, argues Dr. Admoni, is on the concept that the Gulf states, and Qatar in particular, have cultivated for decades: their image as a safe and stable international hub for business, finance, education, and tourism. The departure of foreign workers, the evacuation of citizens by embassies, and recommendations for foreign students to leave universities in Qatar all undermine the image of a “safe place.” According to him, the damage to energy facilities is only part of the harm. The main damage is to the concept of an open and immune Gulf, whose vast wealth is supposed to guarantee its security.
Qatar’s hedging policy under pressure
Qatar’s traditional hedging policy, in which it maintains ties with all sides simultaneously, came under severe distress during the war. On the one hand, Qatar tried to empower its security forces and present itself as having protected the American base on its territory. On the other hand, it used the first minor hit on its facilities to announce the shutdown of QatarEnergy, a move that caused global gas prices to jump by more than 50%. Dr. Admoni adds that Qatar began to take draconian internal measures, such as arresting hundreds of people and restricting social networks, which indicates a significant crack in its sense of security.
Why a “Gulf NATO” is not feasible
In response to a question from Boris Gorelik about whether the war might actually lead to a unification of Gulf forces, Dr. Admoni dismisses the possibility. He mentions the proposal by former Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim to establish a “Gulf NATO,” but argues it is not feasible due to the deep rivalries between the countries regarding political Islam, Turkey, and Iran. As an example, he points to the distinctly pro-Iranian line of the Al Jazeera network, which even raised eyebrows in Qatar itself and anger in the other Gulf states. The proxy struggles between Qatar and the UAE, for example in Sudan and Somalia, continued even during the war and demonstrated the inability to create a united front.
Listeners’ questions
At the end of the episode, Dr. Admoni answers listeners’ questions. Regarding the connection with the Taliban, he explains that Qatar will not be quick to give up its asset of mediating with the organization, as it strengthens its position in the Sunni-Islamist axis. However, the connection is intended for communication, not for wielding power against Iran.
Regarding education in the Gulf, he clarifies that there is a big difference between the countries. While the UAE and Saudi Arabia have changed their curricula, in Qatar there is still anti-Israeli and even antisemitic content in the humanities.
Regarding Israel-Qatar relations, Dr. Admoni warns against a return to the pattern of covert cooperation under the logic of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” However, he believes that the current toxic public atmosphere, both in Israel and in Qatar, makes such a move more difficult than in the past.
The original episode, in Hebrew: כשלון הקונספט המפרצי