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The episode features Dr. Tzamarat Levy-Daphny, a researcher from the Deborah Forum and Forum 1325, for a conversation about Turkey’s foreign policy. The conversation covers Ankara’s position on the conflict between Israel and Iran, its complex relations with Tehran, and its role as a regional power trying to navigate between conflicting alliances and interests. At the beginning of the conversation, Dr. Levy-Daphny explains that Forum 1325, of which she is a member, works to include women in political negotiation processes, in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1325.
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Turkey’s position on the conflict with Iran
According to Dr. Levy-Daphny, Turkey is not silent about the war, and the issue receives extensive coverage in the Turkish press. However, in Israel, the discourse on Turkey tends to be superficial. Turkey issued a stern warning to Iran after Iranian missiles fired at Israel were intercepted in its airspace by NATO batteries. Iran, for its part, denied that the missiles were fired from its territory toward Turkey.
Despite the incident, Turkey is not interested in a military escalation with Iran. According to Dr. Levy-Daphny, this has been a consistent policy for the last 20 years. The two countries have disagreements and conflicts in various arenas, such as Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh, but they operate mechanisms to contain the conflicts to prevent a direct military confrontation. Turkey has more to lose than to gain from such a confrontation. Therefore, despite its criticism of the Iranian attacks, Turkey will not join a military effort against Iran alongside the United States.
Pragmatic foreign policy
Boris asks if Turkey aspires to be not only a diplomatic power but also a military player, and how this aligns with its desire to avoid confrontations. Dr. Levy-Daphny explains that Turkish foreign policy is pragmatic and multi-layered. There are arenas where Turkey uses military force, such as in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh, and arenas where it refrains from doing so, as in the case of Iran.
Turkey’s membership in NATO is a key factor. The alliance restricts Turkey, which cannot side with Iran, but it also provides it with protection, as demonstrated by the NATO air defense batteries stationed on its territory. Turkey sees itself as an important part of the alliance and is not considering leaving it, despite past tensions, such as those surrounding the purchase of the Russian defense system.
In northern Syria, for example, Turkey has maintained military bases since the beginning of the civil war to protect its long border, mainly in the Kurdish context. It remains a significant military, political, and diplomatic force in Syria.
Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Iran
In the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Turkey provided significant military assistance to Azerbaijan, including drones. The bond between the two countries is deep and goes beyond military support. It is based on identity, cultural, and linguistic proximity, under the slogan “two states, one nation.” This bond began to strengthen after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Boris notes Israel’s strong ties with Azerbaijan and asks why Iran refrains from attacking it, despite claims that Israeli aircraft might take off from its territory to attack Iran. Dr. Levy-Daphny notes that this is an interesting question and explains that the Iranian attacks were mainly aimed at targets identified with the United States.
The fear of a refugee crisis
One of Turkey’s biggest fears regarding an escalation with Iran is a stream of refugees. The border between the countries is long and difficult to fully secure. Turkey is still dealing with the economic and political consequences of absorbing over three million refugees from Syria, a crisis that has caused severe social tensions. Despite the aid it received from Europe, absorbing the refugees was a heavy burden. Therefore, Turkey is working to prevent a similar flow of refugees from Iran.
Economic relations and the future of the Iranian regime
Sanctions on Iran have harmed trade between it and Turkey, and its volume stands at only about three percent of total Turkish trade. However, trade has not ceased and includes strategic components like gas: 13% of Turkey’s gas consumption comes from Iran.
According to Dr. Levy-Daphny, Turkey’s interest is the fall of the ayatollahs’ regime. A different regime in Iran, one that is more open to the West, would allow Turkey to realize the immense economic potential inherent in the relations between the two countries. She emphasizes that Turkey and Iran should not be compared. Despite the problems in the Turkish regime, it is a country that operates completely differently from Iran and does not try to export its state model in the same ways.
Turkey as a regional mediator
In Turkey, there is strong anti-Israeli public opinion, directed mainly at the policies of the current leadership. The prevailing perception is that Israel is dragging the region into a dangerous escalation. Accordingly, Turkey opposes the war and offers itself as a mediator. Dr. Levy-Daphny explains that Turkey sees itself as a player that can talk to all sides, and it does indeed pass messages between the Americans and the Iranians. This role is not new, and Turkey has served as a mediator in the past, for example in negotiations between Israel and Syria during the Olmert era.
The original episode, in Hebrew: טורקיה והמלחמה עם איראן