AI generated this summary from the Hebrew recording. No human has checked it, and it may contain errors. The recording is the authoritative source.
In this episode of “This Week in the Middle East,” Dr. Yaron Friedman analyzes the rise of the new regime in Syria, led by Ahmed al-Shara, known as al-Julani, and argues that Syria is rapidly becoming the next major threat to Israel. According to him, while Israel and the world are focused on the war against the Iranian axis, an equally dangerous jihadist enemy is forming beneath the surface on its northern border.
Read the full episode summary
A historical pattern of changing enemies
Dr. Friedman begins by explaining a historical pattern in which the elimination of one enemy leads to the emergence of a new one. He provides several examples: the 1979 peace treaty with Egypt, which marked the decline of the “Sunni axis,” occurred concurrently with the Islamic Revolution in Iran, which created a new enemy. In Lebanon, the expulsion of the PLO led to the rise of Amal and Hezbollah. In the Palestinian arena, the Oslo Accords with Fatah led to the strengthening of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Now, he asks, who will rise after Iran and Hezbollah are weakened in the current war.
Syria under Julani: A new old threat
In Dr. Friedman’s view, the answer is Syria under the leadership of Ahmed al-Shara (al-Julani). He describes Julani as a veteran, multifaceted terrorist, a former senior al-Qaeda figure, who is merely changing his form to gain international legitimacy. Friedman rejects the notion that Julani has moderated, pointing to the growing jihadist atmosphere in Syria, extremist educational content, and demonstrations at Damascus University reminiscent of ISIS.
To understand the roots of the current regime, Friedman goes back to the Syrian civil war that broke out in 2011. The revolution began as a popular uprising of citizens demanding change, and a moderate, secular opposition even emerged. However, according to him, Islamist elements, led by Julani, who was then the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, “stole the revolution.” Julani was sent to Syria by the leader of al-Qaeda to exploit the chaos and establish a jihadist force. The ideological difference between him and ISIS was small, but Julani adopted a more pragmatic tactic of cooperating with other organizations. In every area his forces conquered, he violently deposed the local committees and established committees that imposed Sharia law.
The anti-Israeli radicalization in the new Syria
Dr. Friedman notes that the proposed Israeli law to impose the death penalty on terrorists sparked an unprecedented wave of demonstrations in Syria. The protesters chanted distinctly anti-Jewish slogans, such as “Khaybar, Khaybar, ya Yahud,” and calls for the liberation of al-Aqsa. The demonstrations spread throughout the country, from Damascus to Aleppo, which, he claims, indicates direction from the regime. Julani, he says, could have stopped the protests but chose not to.
Friedman wonders why the Syrians are not expressing gratitude to Israel for weakening their common enemies, the Assad regime and the Shiite axis. He recalls that Israel even provided humanitarian aid to wounded Syrians, including jihadists, as part of the “Good Neighbor” project. However, he also presents the Syrian perspective, which includes complaints about the Israeli presence in the Golan, the IDF’s takeover of the UN buffer zone after the fall of Assad, and the harm to local farmers. Additionally, there is a perception that Israel supports the Druze and encourages the breakup of Syria into cantons.
The “Syrian solution” to the Hezbollah problem
The discussion moves to the Lebanese front and the question of how to defeat Hezbollah. Since Israel does not want to enter Beirut and the Lebanese army is incapable of doing so, a dangerous idea arises: allowing Julani’s army to enter Lebanon and eliminate Hezbollah, his bitter enemy from the civil war. According to Friedman, there are suspicions of cooperation between Julani and elements in Lebanon, and he might receive international legitimacy for such a move.
But Friedman warns that this is a catastrophic scenario. Iran and the Shiite militias in Iraq have already threatened to invade Syria if such a move occurs. It is more likely that Julani will wait for Israel to exhaust Hezbollah, and only then will he seize the opportunity to take over not just Damascus but also Beirut. The result would be the expansion of a hostile jihadist regime’s rule to the Mediterranean Sea, a move that would fulfill the vision of “Greater Syria” and pose a far more severe threat than a weakened Hezbollah.
No magic solutions
The host, Boris Gorelik, asks about alternatives, such as the rise of the Amal movement in place of Hezbollah or the establishment of a Druze-Christian buffer state. Dr. Friedman is pessimistic. He argues that decades of brainwashing by Hezbollah have created a deep-seated hatred that is difficult to uproot, similar to the extremist education now provided by the Syrian regime. As for a Druze state, he explains that the Druze would not agree to rule over Shiite areas in southern Lebanon to gain access to the sea. In conclusion, he notes that the only optimistic point at the moment is the United States joining the war against the Iranian axis, and he expresses hope that an era of agreements will follow the wars.
The original episode, in Hebrew: האויב הבא