AI generated this summary from the Hebrew recording. No human has checked it, and it may contain errors. The recording is the authoritative source.
In this episode, Dr. Haim Koren, a diplomat and Middle East scholar, returns for a conversation about the civil war in Sudan. The conversation covers the causes of the war, the extensive international involvement in the conflict, and its implications for the regional and global balance of power, including for Israel.
Read the full episode summary
The civil war in Sudan
According to Dr. Koren, since April 15, 2023, a war has been raging in Sudan between the two generals who have led the country since the 2019 coup: the de facto president, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and his former deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. Hemedti, who was Burhan’s partner in the coup and also in signing the Abraham Accords, launched a rebellion to seize power. The war has already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, created millions of refugees, and led to severe famine and massacres defined as genocide. The country’s economic situation is on the verge of collapse.
International involvement: Who supports whom
Dr. Koren explains that each of the warring sides has enlisted international support. General Burhan, the incumbent president, is supported by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. In contrast, the rebel Hemedti is backed by the United Arab Emirates.
A turning point occurred in October 2023, when Burhan, after Israel and other countries refused to supply him with weapons, turned to Iran for help. He justified this by saying he would take weapons even from the devil. Iran supplied him with UAVs and other weapons, which led to military successes for his forces.
The Iranian involvement caused a shift in Russia’s position. Russia, which initially supported Hemedti (who had provided it with financial aid at the start of the invasion of Ukraine), switched sides and began supporting Burhan. Thus, Burhan now enjoys a broad coalition of supporters that includes Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Russia.
Regional rivalries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar
The conflict in Sudan, according to Dr. Koren, is also an arena for regional power struggles. Qatar, which supports Burhan, is running a media campaign against the United Arab Emirates, partly through cartoons and fake news on the Al Jazeera network. In one cartoon, for example, Israel was depicted as a puppeteer controlling the UAE, thereby being falsely accused of complicity in the genocide in Sudan.
Dr. Koren notes that there is also a rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which was previously evident in the war in Yemen. However, recent Iranian aggression has caused them to reduce their disagreements and focus on the common threat.
Sudan as a gateway to Africa
Dr. Koren emphasizes Sudan’s strategic importance as a gateway to the Sahel region, a strip of 11 countries crossing Africa. Russia, through the Wagner Group, has used its foothold in Sudan to expand its influence into countries like Chad and Niger, while ousting traditional French influence through a series of military coups.
This takeover is part of an effort by an axis that includes Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. Iran, for example, has a clear interest in reaching Niger, one of the world’s largest uranium producers.
The implications for Israel
Sudan’s rapprochement with Iran represents a reversal of the trend of recent years, which included disengaging from the axis of terror and joining the Abraham Accords. Dr. Koren warns that one of the conditions for lifting sanctions on Sudan was combating terrorist elements, chief among them the Muslim Brotherhood. Now, there are reports of Muslim Brotherhood members returning to Burhan’s army. This combination, along with support from Iran and Pakistan, could turn Sudan back into a state sponsor of terrorism.
According to him, the situation in Sudan cannot be resolved separately from the broader regional conflict. As long as the international picture, particularly the confrontation between Iran and the West, does not become clearer, no significant change is expected in Sudan.
Support from Israel’s friends in Africa
At the end of the conversation, Boris asks about the pro-Israel statements of a senior official in the Ugandan army. Dr. Koren explains this in the context of the widespread Christian Evangelical faith in Africa. Many Christian communities in Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia believe in the Bible and the Jewish people’s right to the Land of Israel. This support also stems from the common struggle against radical Islam, which threatens Christians in Africa. Therefore, when Iran threatens Israel, these voices rally to its defense, sometimes in creative ways.
The original episode, in Hebrew: סודאן בלב הסערה