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The episode features Dr. Nir Reichental, an expert on Pakistan and nuclear non-proliferation. The conversation covers the history of Pakistan, the circumstances that led it to become a nuclear power, and the complex interests guiding it today, as it finds itself in the role of the main mediator between Iran and the United States.
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The founding of Pakistan
According to Dr. Reichental, Pakistan is a young country established in 1947 as part of the partition of British India. The demand for a separate Muslim state, led by the Muslim League, gained momentum in the 1940s. Initially, it was seen as a bargaining chip against the Indian National Congress party, which aspired to a united, secular India. However, the British, who were exhausted after World War II and wanted to “pack up shop” and leave, ultimately agreed to the partition.
Boris Gorelik remarks that it is easy to blame the British for all the world’s troubles, but Dr. Reichental clarifies that in this case, the hasty and chaotic manner in which the partition was carried out, in just six weeks, is the root of many of Pakistan’s fundamental problems. The process of transferring authority was flawed, the borders were drawn problematically, creating a state split into two wings (West and East Pakistan, now Bangladesh), and the regions that made up the new country were underdeveloped frontier areas of the empire. The civil establishment was weak, and within about a decade the army, which was the only organized body, seized power in a coup. Since then, Reichental argues, the army has been the dominant factor in Pakistani politics, even more so than in Egypt.
The nuclear program
The decision to develop nuclear weapons was made, according to Dr. Reichental, following the greatest trauma in the country’s history: the 1971 war, in which Pakistan lost its eastern part (Bangladesh) to India. The new prime minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, was obsessed with the idea of the bomb and said that Pakistanis would eat grass if necessary, but they would get a nuclear weapon. India’s nuclear test in 1974 only accelerated the efforts.
Initially, Pakistan tried to pursue the plutonium route, but American pressure on France torpedoed a deal to purchase a plutonium separation facility. Pakistan then turned to the path of uranium enrichment using centrifuges, a technology that was less common at the time. The knowledge was brought by the scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, who worked at the European nuclear consortium and offered his services to the Pakistani government. Thanks to him, Pakistan had fissile material as early as the beginning of the 1980s.
Involvement in the Middle East
Dr. Reichental explains that all of Pakistan’s foreign policy stems from the conflict with India. Pakistan is at an inherent disadvantage against its giant neighbor and always fears an existential threat from it. Its aspiration is to achieve a strategic balance with India, a goal it will probably never achieve. One of the ways to overcome this disadvantage is to recruit support from Middle Eastern countries.
After 1971, Pakistan turned to the Gulf states, primarily Saudi Arabia, and developed close ties with them: it received extensive economic aid, and in return provided military assistance, training, and even stationed forces to defend the Saudi kingdom. At the same time, it used its nuclear technology to gain strategic depth. It provided nuclear knowledge to Iran, hoping Iran would support it against India, and Saudi Arabia also generously funded the nuclear program, likely in exchange for a future nuclear umbrella.
Mediation in the Iranian crisis
In the current crisis between Iran and the United States, Pakistan has become a mediator almost by default, after Iran attacked other potential mediators. According to Dr. Reichental, Pakistan is very afraid of a war, which could lead to a catastrophe for it. One scenario is the fall of the regime in Iran and the rise of a pro-Western regime, which would become another hostile front for Pakistan. A second scenario is the dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program, a move that Pakistanis believe would make them the next target of nuclear disarmament efforts, due to their problematic history of proliferating nuclear technology. In addition, the war creates internal tensions in Pakistan, which is home to the world’s largest Shia minority outside of Iran.
Therefore, the goal of the mediation is to prevent the renewal of the war. Pakistan’s influence on the parties is limited, but it can convey messages and help de-escalate tensions. Success in mediation would allow it to score points in Washington, which are essential for receiving economic and military aid, and also to prove to Saudi Arabia that it is fulfilling its part of their defense pact through diplomatic means.
Relations with Israel
To the question about the chance of normalization with Israel, Dr. Reichental responds in the negative. He tells of a missed window of opportunity in 2005, when the foreign ministers of the two countries met, but the move was not realized. Today, public opinion in Pakistan is very hostile to Israel, and the country is one of the most antisemitic in the world. The main obstacle, he says, is Israel’s close strategic ties with India. Pakistanis see Israel as a factor that helped their great enemy, especially in the 1999 Kargil War, when Israel provided India with critical military aid that decided the campaign.
The original episode, in Hebrew: מה הקטע של פקיסטן?