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In this episode of “This Week in the Middle East,” the guest is Mor Shapiro, a lecturer in the Arabic department at Bar-Ilan University and a researcher at the MEMRI institute. The conversation covers the dramatic change in the status of the United Arab Emirates, which has transformed from a neutral, business-oriented country into a central and controversial geopolitical player, drawing sharp criticism from Iran and most Arab states.
Read the full episode summary
From a “both/and” policy to an assertive geopolitical player
According to Mor Shapiro, the United Arab Emirates has abandoned the “both/and” policy that characterized it and the other Gulf states for years. In the past, these countries tried to maintain good relations with all sides: with the axis of resistance and political Islam, as well as with the West, while promoting their economy and trade. Today, Shapiro explains, the UAE is taking a clear and unequivocal stance, thereby becoming the most controversial player in the Middle East.
The criticism against it stems not only from its normalization with Israel, which is now seen as “old news”, but mainly from its actions in other arenas: its involvement in the civil wars in Sudan and Yemen (where it joined forces with Saudi Arabia against the Houthis), and its determined war on what it calls “Islamic terrorism”. The UAE presents itself as an alternative and a new major player in the Arab world, a move that Saudi Arabia, which sees itself as the region’s leader, does not like.
A rift with Saudi Arabia
One of the clearest expressions of the tension between the countries is the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC. According to Shapiro, although energy experts might see this as a minor drama, in the realm of inter-Arab relations it is an unprecedented act of defiance against Saudi Arabia, the organization’s leader. The move is seen as a demonstration of independence, especially regarding its policy toward Iran. While Saudi Arabia is pursuing an American-brokered agreement with Tehran, the UAE, which has suffered Iranian attacks, demands a tougher line.
Shapiro explains that leaving OPEC allows the UAE to flood the market with oil, lower prices, and thus directly harm Saudi Arabia’s economic plans, such as “Vision 2030”. The move is perceived as a betrayal, especially after the close cooperation between the two countries in the war in Yemen and the boycott of Qatar. Shapiro adds that there is also a personal dimension, as the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, was once a protégé of the UAE’s ruler, Mohammed bin Zayed.
“The Eastern Israel”
The main reason for the hostility toward the UAE, Shapiro argues, is its normalization with Israel. She quotes the Palestinian academic Azzam Tamimi, who claims that the UAE has always aspired to be an ally of Israel, and that the Arab world and Iran believe it has collaborated with Israel and the United States in the war against Iran. The former president of Tunisia, Moncef Marzouki, even called the UAE “the Eastern Israel whose capital is Abu Dhabi,” and claimed it is a tool in Israel’s hands.
Threats also come from Iran. An Iranian member of parliament stated that after the United States withdraws from the region, Iran will “put the UAE through hell”. Iranian officials often mock the UAE’s tiny size, claiming they could return it to the era when its inhabitants rode camels.
Acquiring strategic assets
Shapiro describes how the UAE uses its economic power not just for donations, but to acquire strategic national assets in other countries to establish its political influence.
- Egypt: The UAE saved the Egyptian economy from collapse through a massive deal to develop a coastal strip near Alexandria. This investment, along with acquiring holdings in companies, banks, and ports, has given Abu Dhabi enormous leverage over Cairo, and it is one of the reasons Egypt refrains from sharp public criticism of Israel.
- Jordan: The UAE is financing the “water for electricity” deal between Israel and Jordan. Jordan’s dependence on Emirati funds prevents King Abdullah from taking steps against the peace agreement with Israel or against the UAE’s normalization moves.
- Sudan: The UAE has signed agreements to build and operate new ports on Sudan’s Red Sea coast, thereby securing control over a vital international shipping lane.
Military intervention and Palestinian ingratitude
Contrary to its past image, the UAE has become militarily involved in regional conflicts. It has used American mercenaries in Yemen, and it actively supports the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the Sudanese civil war, which led the Sudanese government to file a genocide complaint against it at the International Court of Justice in The Hague.
Meanwhile, the Palestinian street, which previously benefited from extensive economic aid from the UAE, now sees it as a traitor. In Gaza, they burn pictures of Mohammed bin Zayed, and humanitarian aid from the UAE is seen as a “Trojan horse” intended to promote Hamas’s enemy, Mohammed Dahlan, who lives in Abu Dhabi and serves as an advisor to bin Zayed.
The original episode, in Hebrew: האמירויות על הכוונת