Dr. Yaron Friedman on post-Khamenei Iran, the future of Syria, and the Alawite community

Three competing authorities in Iran

According to Dr. Friedman, after the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei, the era of “Velayat-e Faqih”, the rule of the senior cleric, has come to an end. A power struggle is now underway in Iran between three main centers. The first is the moderate president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who prioritizes the economy and seeks a quick agreement with the United States to alleviate the country’s severe crisis. Opposing him is the hawkish line of the Revolutionary Guards, led by Ahmad Vahidi, currently the strongman in Iran. Vahidi opposes negotiations and tries to sabotage them, for example, by firing on oil tankers. Between these two poles is the speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is leading the negotiations but sets strict demands: he wants sanctions lifted, but also wants to keep the nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz in Iranian hands.

Dr. Friedman believes the negotiations are a “dialogue of the deaf”, as the United States demands concessions that Iran is unwilling to make. Meanwhile, the American siege is strangling the Iranian economy, and the situation is so dire that there may soon be no money even for medicine. He also expresses distrust in the mediating countries: Oman, which he says collaborates with Iran, Pakistan, and pro-Hamas Qatar.

Was the military strike in Iran the right move

In response to a listener’s question, Dr. Friedman argues that the military action in Iran was unavoidable, both because of Iran’s progress toward a nuclear bomb and because of its vast missile arsenal. He compares the situation to medical treatment: the initial strikes were like an urgent dose of antibiotics, and the joint war with the United States was a stronger dose. But now, the treatment has stopped, and the Iranian “cancer”, meaning the regime, continues to develop. According to him, stopping antibiotic treatment midway is dangerous, and the same is true in Iran’s case.

The Iranian people and the regime

Boris asks why the regime, which has been significantly weakened, has not yet fallen despite the protests. Dr. Friedman explains that the military blows were not enough to undermine the militias’ control of the streets. The regime still suppresses protests and also brings supporters out into the streets, who sometimes receive payment or food to participate in pro-regime demonstrations. He adds that the regime still has a loyal support base, mainly among the poor, religious, and rural classes, so it cannot be said that the majority in Iran opposes the regime.

Syria under Ahmed al-Sharaa

Dr. Friedman believes that Syria under the new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is more stable than it was under Assad’s rule. While Assad represented an Alawite minority that was completely dependent on Russia and Iran, al-Sharaa represents the country’s Sunni majority. Although he was a jihadist in the past, he presents himself as a moderate and is trying to unite the Syrian people. His stability rests on support from Turkey, and he has achieved successes such as overthrowing the Assad regime, taking control of Damascus and the coastal region, and eliminating the Kurdish autonomy. His main enemies today are more extreme jihadist organizations, like ISIS, who see him as a collaborator with the United States.

Syria, Lebanon, and Hezbollah

Contrary to fears that Hezbollah forces would enter Syria, Dr. Friedman estimates that the more likely scenario is that Ahmed al-Sharaa will try to enter Lebanon. Hezbollah is at a historic low: its budget from Iran has been cut, the land corridor through Syria is closed, and it has been forced to recruit young boys into its ranks. However, al-Sharaa is a cautious leader, and according to Dr. Friedman, he will not risk an invasion of Lebanon as long as he is not completely certain of Hezbollah’s weakness. Such an invasion could ignite a brutal civil war in which jihadists would slaughter Shias, which would trigger a harsh Iranian response with missile fire on Damascus. Such a scenario could plunge the entire region into a wider war. Meanwhile, the new regime in Syria has signed an agreement with the Lebanese government to cooperate in the war on drugs and terror, a move aimed at paralyzing Hezbollah’s operational channels.

The future of the refugees and the Alawite community

According to Dr. Friedman, Syria’s reconstruction is beginning slowly, with funds flowing from Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Qatar. The country has a chance to recover economically, unlike Iran, which is choked by sanctions. The return of refugees from Europe is slow, as the country cannot yet absorb them, and many of them are warning others on social media not to return.

At the same time, the situation of the Alawite community in Syria is catastrophic. After the fall of the Assad regime, a brutal campaign of revenge began against them, which included massacres, mass firings, and property confiscation. Dr. Friedman describes this as a “creeping murder”. The Alawites have no patron state to protect them. The small communities in Turkey and Lebanon are also threatened. The only community that is in a safe situation is the one in the village of Ghajar in Israel, whose members are Israeli citizens. According to him, the Alawite community is now paying the price for 50 years of rule by the Assad family, which promoted them and has now brought revenge upon them.