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This episode of This Week in the Middle East features Dr. Galia Lindenstrauss, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and an expert on Turkey. The conversation covers the complex relationship between Turkey, Israel, and the United States, Ankara’s foreign policy under Erdoğan’s rule, and the expected future of relations after the Erdoğan era.
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Rivalry instead of friendship
According to Dr. Galia Lindenstrauss, Turkey and Israel, two important allies of the United States, are currently in a state of rivalry. She describes the situation as an “unbalanced triad,” an unstable structure where the United States, under the unpredictable leadership of Donald Trump, has to maneuver between two feuding friends. She says that in Turkey and other countries in the region, they are waiting for the results of the elections in Israel in the hope of a change. The Turks do not necessarily want to weaken Israel, but for it to return to a more rational policy, one that takes regional constraints into account.
Boris Gorelik asks if the hostility of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stems from antisemitism and not necessarily from Israel’s conduct. Dr. Lindenstrauss agrees that the Turkish side has led the deterioration of relations since 2009, but emphasizes that Erdoğan has proven his ability to be pragmatic in the past, for example in improving relations with Israel in 2016 and 2022. She argues that he lost the will for pragmatism following the events of October 7 and Israeli actions in Syria, which are perceived in the region as excessive and irresponsible.
The Turkish presence in Syria
Boris notes that Turkey itself also controls parts of northern Syria. Dr. Lindenstrauss clarifies that the Turkish presence there is shrinking, and unlike Israel, Syrian opposition elements see Turkey as an ally that has supported them. While Israel is perceived as wanting to expand its influence in Syria, the Turks declare that their presence is temporary. She adds that even in Israel, there is a growing recognition that Bashar al-Assad is remaining in power, and that a strong central government in Syria with accountability might be a more convenient scenario for Israel than dealing with non-state actors.
The day after Erdoğan
In response to a listener’s question, Dr. Lindenstrauss explains that even after Erdoğan leaves power, relations with Israel are expected to remain complex. According to her, there is widespread hostility towards Israel among the Turkish public and deep sympathy for the Palestinian issue, which is not expected to disappear. Erdoğan’s successor will likely be politically weaker than him and will find it difficult to make a sharp change regarding Israel, as such a move has a domestic political cost. As an example, she cites the trade boycott Turkey imposed on Israel in May 2024, which she claims was forced on Erdoğan following pressure from Islamist and left-wing forces after the local election results. However, she notes that Erdoğan’s departure will expand the political space and allow more room for other opinions.
Turkey’s military buildup
Dr. Lindenstrauss describes how Turkey is learning lessons from what is happening in the region and is undertaking a significant military buildup. Erdoğan is pushing for the development of missile capabilities of all ranges, the establishment of an air defense system like Iron Dome, and is even exploring options in the nuclear field. A key success for Erdoğan is the development of the Turkish defense industry, which serves as a tool for ensuring independence and also as a diplomatic lever. According to her, Turkey’s rapprochement with Egypt and Saudi Arabia would not have been possible without its ability to supply advanced drones.
However, Turkey is still dependent on foreign weapon systems. Its air force remains a weak point after it was removed from the F-35 project. An independent Turkish fighter jet is at least a decade away. The United States, for its part, prefers that countries in the region purchase weapons from Turkey, a NATO ally, rather than from China or Russia.
Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Israel
The conversation also touches on the trilateral relationship with Azerbaijan. Dr. Lindenstrauss explains that Azerbaijan is not comfortable with the tension between Israel and Turkey, and uses its ties with Israel to balance its dependence on Ankara. Israel and Turkey, each for their own reasons, accept this complex situation. Israel understands Azerbaijan’s sensitivity as a country neighboring Iran, and Turkey refrains from asking it to sever its ties with Israel, partly because it might need it as a mediator in the future.
Global ambitions and a forecast for the future
According to Dr. Lindenstrauss, Erdoğan’s vision is not the restoration of the Ottoman Empire, but the establishment of the “Turkish Century,” in which Turkey will become one of the world’s top ten powers. This ambition is expressed not only in military and economic buildup, but also in global diplomatic activity, such as the call for reform of the UN Security Council and investments in distant places like Somalia.
Looking to the future, she believes that the state of relations between the countries will depend mainly on the direction Israel takes. If Israel adopts a more rational policy that recognizes the limits of its power, Turkey is also expected to behave differently towards it. If Israel continues its policy of “going against the system,” Turkey will be part of that system.
The original episode, in Hebrew: טורקיה, ישראל, ארה״ב