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In this episode, the guest is Dr. Haim Koren, a researcher and lecturer at Reichman University and Israel’s former ambassador to Egypt and South Sudan, to discuss the renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. According to Dr. Koren, what seems like a local conflict over sea access is actually part of a complex web of regional and global interests, affecting the entire Horn of Africa and the Middle East.
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Historical background and the concept of frenemies
Dr. Haim Koren begins by explaining that the world is currently in a period of rapid dynamic changes, similar to the periods after the world wars, when new borders and identities were formed. In this context, he notes the establishment of the concept of frenemies in diplomacy, a combination of friends and enemies. The term describes states or entities that cooperate in certain areas but compete with each other in others, learning to contain their conflicting interests.
According to him, the history of Ethiopia and Eritrea is complex. Ethiopia is an ancient empire, one of the few countries in Africa that were never under colonial rule. In contrast, Eritrea was ruled by Italy. The borders between the countries, partly drawn by Europeans, cross ethnic groups like the Tigrayans, who live on both sides of the border.
From a peace agreement to a renewed war
Dr. Koren explains that after Eritrea gained independence in 1992 with Ethiopia’s agreement, Ethiopia, a country of about 120 million people, became a landlocked country. Its economy, which relied on the Eritrean port of Assab, was harmed.
Upon coming to power, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a historic peace agreement with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The agreement, which included the possibility of using Eritrea’s ports, earned Abiy Ahmed the Nobel Peace Prize. However, two years later, a war broke out in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia. Initially, Eritrea cooperated with Ethiopia against the Tigrayan rebels, but the cooperation fell apart and the conflict between the countries reignited. According to Dr. Koren, the root of the conflict is Ethiopia’s strong desire to secure sea access for itself, while Eritrea refuses any border changes.
The web of regional and global interests
The conflict, according to Dr. Koren, has long since moved beyond the borders of the two countries.
- Egypt and the Renaissance Dam: Egypt is very concerned about the Renaissance Dam that Ethiopia built on the Blue Nile. The tension in the region harms negotiations over the distribution of water and electricity from the dam. Dr. Koren adds that the Houthi threat in the Red Sea region also poses a theoretical risk to the dam, and damage to it could be devastating for Egypt.
- Somalia and Somaliland: In its search for sea access, Ethiopia signed an agreement with Somaliland, a region that broke away from Somalia, to use the port of Berbera. This move angered Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its territory. Egypt supported Somalia and even made military threats against Ethiopia.
- Gulf powers: The United Arab Emirates supports Ethiopia and Somaliland as part of its strategy to gain control of ports in the region. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, tends to side with Eritrea. The war in Yemen adds to the complexity, as the shared Houthi threat pushes Saudi Arabia and the UAE to cooperate, despite their conflicting interests in the Horn of Africa.
- Turkey and China: Turkey, which has invested heavily in Somalia, opposes the Ethiopian move in Somaliland. China, a major investor in Ethiopia, also opposes the recognition of Somaliland, partly due to Somaliland’s good relations with Taiwan.
Israel’s involvement and the current situation
In response to a question from Boris about Israel’s role, Dr. Koren explains that Israel is in a delicate position. It maintains diplomatic relations with both Ethiopia and Eritrea. He notes that Egypt tends to accuse Israel of supporting Ethiopia on the dam issue, a claim he describes as baseless propaganda. Israel’s ties with the United Arab Emirates and the talk of cooperation with Saudi Arabia in Yemen add another layer of complexity.
In conclusion, Dr. Koren argues that a conflict that began as a local struggle has become a regional and international issue involving many players. According to him, the need of a regional power like Ethiopia for sea access cannot be ignored for long, and doing so could lead to a wider war. Therefore, many actors, including the African Union and the major powers, are now trying to mediate between the parties to reach a new arrangement.
The original episode, in Hebrew: אתיופיה-אריתריאה: מלחמת הכל בכל