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In this episode, linguist and Iran expert Dr. Tamar Eilam Gindin joins the podcast for a conversation about the situation in Iran following the recent war. Dr. Eilam Gindin analyzes the regime’s response to the war, its surprising use of pre-Islamic Iranian nationalism, social media dynamics, scenarios for the regime’s future, and the country’s severe internal crises, particularly the water crisis.
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Appropriating Iranian nationalism
According to Dr. Tamar Eilam Gindin, the Islamic Republic branded the war as a victory, but it actually emerged wounded and humiliated. This situation led to increased domestic repression, including arrests and executions, and also to a new propaganda phenomenon: the appropriation of Iranian national symbols from the pre-Islamic period. The regime, which usually disdains this heritage and even closes the roads to the Tomb of Cyrus on Cyrus Day, has begun to enlist it for its own purposes.
As an example, she mentions a billboard that depicted Benjamin Netanyahu kneeling before the Sasanian king Shapur I, inspired by an ancient rock relief showing the surrender of the Roman emperor Valerian. The message was clear: this is what happens to those who mess with Iran. In another instance, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei asked a religious singer (a maddah) to sing the national song “Ey Iran”. Even the state broadcasting authority changed its name in its on-screen captions from “Broadcasting Authority of the Islamic Republic” to “Broadcasting Authority of Iran”. Dr. Eilam Gindin compares this to Stalin’s use of the Orthodox Church during World War II to rally the people.
The public’s reaction
According to Dr. Eilam Gindin, the Iranian public is not buying this propaganda. On social media, attempts to harness nationalist sentiment are met with cynicism and ridicule. Many users respond to messages like “You will yet kneel before Iran” by arguing that the Islamic Republic, which they perceive as a foreign “Arab” regime, is the one that will kneel before the Iranian people. Every attempt by the regime to create unity around the flag blows up in its face and becomes a joke online.
War on social media
Dr. Eilam Gindin explains how to identify on Twitter who are regime agents and who are opponents. According to her, users tweeting from inside Iran without a VPN, a practice nicknamed the “white line”, are likely regime agents, since the networks are blocked for ordinary citizens. Surprisingly, it was discovered that even separatist accounts, for instance those of pan-Kurdish groups, operate with a “white line”. This reinforces the suspicion that the regime runs them itself to delegitimize the protests and frighten the public with the prospect of the state’s collapse.
The future of the regime and scenarios for the day after Khamenei
Boris asks what would have happened if Khamenei, an elderly and sick man, had been killed in the war. Dr. Eilam Gindin presents several possible scenarios. One scenario is that the regime would have been weakened enough for the people to overthrow it. Another is a takeover by a hostile entity, such as the Mojahedin-e Khalq organization, which is considered worse than the current regime. Another plausible scenario is that the Assembly of Experts would have quickly appointed a successor, possibly from a list Khamenei himself had prepared. Such a successor, younger and more pragmatic, could have actually saved the Islamic Republic. Finally, there is also the “Chinese scenario”, in which the regime remains in power but carries out slow economic and social reforms to ensure its survival.
The failure of the popular uprising
According to Dr. Eilam Gindin, the expectation in Israel for a popular uprising in Iran during the war did not materialize for several reasons. First, the regime completely shut down the internet, which prevented any ability to organize. Second, many residents fled Tehran during the bombing, so most potential protesters were not even in the city. Third, it is difficult to organize a mass demonstration under the threat of bombing. It also appears there was no coordination between Israel and opposition figures such as the exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi.
Unity and division
The regime tries to portray the protests as an initiative of separatist minorities, but according to Dr. Eilam Gindin, the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protest was characterized by pan-Iranian unity. The protest, which began after the death of a young Kurdish woman, swept up all the country’s ethnic groups, including the Baloch, Azeris, and Persians, and spread to every remote village.
The water crisis in Tehran
Dr. Eilam Gindin describes another severe crisis: the water crisis. Tehran, a capital over two hundred years old, was built when Iran’s entire population was less than ten million people. Today, more than ten million live in Tehran alone, and the infrastructure cannot handle the load. Years of drought, over-pumping of groundwater for wasteful agriculture, and poor education on water conservation have depleted the underground water reserves. The result is severe land subsidence, with certain neighborhoods in Tehran sinking at a rate of more than 30 centimeters a year, and the appearance of sinkholes. The only solution to these phenomena is to evacuate cities, an almost impossible task in the case of a huge metropolis like Tehran.
The original episode, in Hebrew: איך האייתולות שורדים?