A short compilation of productivity blog posts

Photo by Mike on Pexels.com

This post contains a bunch of links to blogs that write about productivity.

  1. Musings of Brown Girls

This is not an exclusively productivity blog. The authors of this collective effort write about other interesting things. I read some posts, and I liked them

2. Self care

Do you know that feeling when you feel bad and don’t have the energy to do anything about that? This post is for you.

3. Saying NO

Being a freelancer, I have to practice saying NO. Saying NO isn’t only good for productivity but also for your mental health. Interesting post.

Why is forecasting s-curves hard?

Constance Crozier (@clcrozier on Twitter) shared an interesting simulation in which she tried to fit a sigmoid curve (s-curve) to predict a plateau in a time-series. The result was a very intuitive and convincing animation that shows how wrong her initial forecasts were.

The matter of fact is that this phenomenon is not new at all. My first post-University job involved fitting numerous pharmacodynamics models. We always had to keep in mind that if the available data does not account for at least 95% of the maximum effect, the model will be very much suboptimal. It took me a while, but I managed to find the reference for this phenomenon [here]. Maybe, when I have some time, I will repeat Constance Crozier’s analysis, and add confidence intervals to emphasize the point.

EDIT: I came the conclusion that the most important takaway message of this demonstration is the necessity of reporting uncertainty with any forecast, and how small the value of a forecast is without uncertainty estimations.

S-curves (or sigmoid functions) are commonly used to model the evolution of social or biological systems over time [1]. These functions start with exponential growth, then increase linearly, and finally level off (therefore end up looking like a wonky s). Many things that we think of as exponential functions will actually follow an s-curve (otherwise […]

Forecasting s-curves is hard — Constance Crozier

Everything is NOT just fine (repost)

My job wasn’t affected by the COVID madness in almost any way. I used to work from home before, and I work from home now, none on my customers cancelled any projects, the health system in Israel is still functioning, all of my relatives are in good health, everything is just fine! I know how unusual I am in the current world, with the skyrocketing unemployment, non-functioning governments, and three-digit body counts. I was about to write about that, but then I read AnnMaria’s post.

You should read it too

I’ve read a lot of cheery tweets that said something like, “Buffy, Biff and I are isolated at home with our terrier, Boo. Here’s a picture. Isn’t he cute? We played card games, then I baked this three-course meal I saw on Pinterest. Biff is taking this time to finally become proficient in Mandarin with…

Everything is NOT just fine — AnnMaria’s Blog

5 Basics of Consulting Success: Part 1

Being a data science freelancer, and a long-time AnnMaria’s fan, I HAVE to repost here latest post on consulting success

Last week, I mentioned that successful consultants have five categories of skills; communication, testing, statistics, programming and generalist. COMMUNICATION Communication is the number one most important skill. All five are necessary to some extent, but a terrific communicator with mediocre statistical analysis skills will get more business than a stellar statistician that can’t communicate. Communication…

5 Basics of Consulting Success: Part 1 — AnnMaria’s Blog

Software commodities are eating interesting data science work — Yanir Seroussi

If you read my shortish post about staying employable as a data scientist, you might like a longer post by a colleague, Yanir Seroussi. In his post, Yanir lists four possible paths for a data scientist: (1) become an engineer; (2) reinvent the wheel; (3) search for niches; and (4) expand the cutting edge.

To this list, I would also add two other options.

(5) Manage. Managing is not developing, it’s a different profession. However, some developers and data scientists that I know choose this path. I am not a manager myself, so I hope I don’t insult the managers who read these lines, but I think that it is much easier for a good manager to stay good, than for a good developer or data scientist.

(6) Teach. I teach as a part-time job. One reason for teaching is that I sometimes enjoy it. Another reason is that I feel that at some point, I might not be good enough to stay on the cutting edge but still sharp enough to teach the new generations the basics.

Anyhow, read Yanir’s post linked below.

The passage of time makes wizards of us all. Today, any dullard can make bells ring across the ocean by tapping out phone numbers, cause inanimate toys to march by barking an order, or activate remote devices by touching a wireless screen. Thomas Edison couldn’t have managed any of this at his peak—and shortly before […]

Software commodities are eating interesting data science work — Yanir Seroussi

Data visualization with statistical reasoning: seeing uncertainty with the bootstrap — Dataviz – Stats – Bayes

On Sunday, I wrote about bootstrapping. On Monday, I wrote about visualization uncertainty. Let’s now talk about bootstrapping and uncertainty visualization.

Robert Grant is a data visualization expert who wrote a book about interactive data visualization (which I should read, BTW).

Robert runs an interesting blog from which I learned another approach to uncertainty visualization, bootstrapping.

Source: Robert Grant.

Read the entire post: Data visualization with statistical reasoning: seeing uncertainty with the bootstrap — Dataviz – Stats – Bayes